The natural cynic in me is loathe to ever partake in analyzing early voting numbers, but there is one exception. Jon Ralston has a long history of breaking down the data in Nevada and has proven that his model should be taken seriously. With that said, it’s panic time for Kamala Harris.
Ralston has released his latest blog on the early returns, and they paint a picture of a race slipping away from the Harris campaign. Things are so bad that she’d now need to dramatically overperform with independents to make up the difference.
The early voting blog is updated!
Rs have added 2K to lead, which is now 31,000, or 5%. GOP surge slowed a bit Saturday, but Republicans still gained.
Dems need to decisively win indies to make this a late Election Night.
Down-ballot update, too!https://t.co/Pl43XBMcPA
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 27, 2024
Republicans have increased their statewide lead to 31,000. That’s right at 5 percent. It had been 29,000 after Day 7, so the increase slowed down. But the Rs still have a 6.1 percent turnout edge over the Dems in a state where the Dems no longer have a substantial voter registration edge, so Dems must win indies to win Nevada. They need to win indies by about 5 points if the GOP turnout edge in the final electorate is 5 percent; if it’s 6 percent, that means they have to win indies by a couple more points.
So the Dems have to start changing the electorate more to have a chance, even if they are doing well now with indies. They don’t want to be trailing by 30,000 ballots going into Election Day. Why? If the final balloting were to take place with the current electoral mix, the Ds would have to win indies by 10 points, even if Trump lost 5 percent more off his base than Harris did with hers.
Possible? Maybe, but pretty unlikely. […]
— Read More: redstate.com
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