The users “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “PrincessCaro” and “Michie” make up $26 million in bets for Trump on popular betting site Polymarket, The Wall Street Journal first discovered Friday. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has a 60% chance of winning the 2024 election, compared to only a 39.8% chance of Vice President Kamala Harris winning, a massive difference from the comparatively even odds predicted around October.

Some people, such as billionaire and Trump supporter Elon Musk, see the betting markets as a reflection of the reality of the election more than the polls. Experts are still divided on whether staking real money makes betting markets more accurate than polling, according to Fortune Friday.

“Unlike polls, prediction markets can be influenced by the interests of a small number of large players, as appears to be happening [on Polymarket],” Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at the public affairs consultancy Think Big, told Fortune. “The limitation here is that prediction markets often attract a specific kind of participant: people interested in betting who might not reflect the broader population and they can be influenced by deep pockets, overconfident individuals or herd mentality.”

On Polymarket, people can buy “shares” on what they think is the most likely outcome of the election, with rise and fall depending on demand, according to Fortune. Nicholas Creel, an associate professor of business law at Georgia College & State University told Fortune that Polymarket attracts a certain type of person and leaves out the general population.

“In Polymarket in particular, you don’t have a particularly large or diverse crowd of people,” Creel said. “A large driver of this is that the exchange requires users to bet with cryptocurrency, which the vast majority of the population has little to no familiarity with. Cryptocurrency tends to be something mostly loved by those on the far right, particularly your libertarian types.”

Some experts even think that the sway in odds on the betting platform is part of a broader operation to boost Trump’s favorability.

“I believe there has been a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race,” Tom Bonier, senior adviser at research firm TargetSmart, told Fortune. “A central argument has emerged in the closing weeks of this campaign: strength versus weakness. Donald Trump’s persona, and therefore his support from voters, relies on being seen as strong. But if the public perception is that he will lose, that all falls apart.”

Polymarket did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

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(DCNF)—Colorado officials are pushing back on former President Donald Trump’s claims that Aurora is overrun with organized crime by Venezuelan migrants, but spite of the officials’ claims, crimes involving gangs have increased considerably since last year.

Trump will speak in Aurora on Friday as part of his push to highlight migrant crime, following ten members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua being identified in September in the city after the gang allegedly took over apartment complexes. While crime in aggregate has fallen in the city since last year, gang-related crime has increased, and long-term trends paint a more bleak picture of Aurora overall, according to city data.

“This is a safer town than its been before,” Democratic Colorado Governor Jared Polis said in an interview, according to The Associated Press. “Things are going really great … and I don’t want this bizarre counter-narrative out there.”

Preliminary data published by the city suggests crime is down 16% between January and September compared to the same time frame in 2023. However, the data also shows a 30.2% increase in gang-related activity compared to last year at this point.

The city has also seen a significant increase of 12.4% among all crimes from 2008 to 2022, with incidents against persons rising by 46% and property by 17.7%, according to the Common Sense Institute in 2023.

“Former President Trump’s visit to Aurora is an opportunity to show him and the nation that Aurora is a considerably safe city — not a city overrun by Venezuelan gangs,” Republican Aurora Mayor Mike Coffman told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “The reality is that the concerns about Venezuelan gang activity have been grossly exaggerated. The incidents were limited to several apartment complexes in this city of more than 400,000 residents.”

Despite Coffman’s insistence that the problem is overblown, Aurora’s proposed 2025 budget included a $125 million funding increase, which included cash for the Aurora Police Department to counteract international gang activity and retail crime. The proposed plan would take the police budget from $155.7 million in 2024 to nearly $165 million by 2025.

Tren de Aragua started as a prison gang in Venezuela in 2013, taking over the Torocon prison in the Aragua state and making it their base of operations, growing to around 5,000 members in 2023, according to Insight Crime. The gang’s activity is relatively novel in the U.S., coming largely in the wake of a surge in immigration, with Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) seeing a 421% increase in Venezuelans encountered at the southern border from fiscal year 2021 to 2023, according to agency data.

“We’re not heavily scrutinizing anyone coming in,” Ammon Blair, former CBP agent and senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, told the DCNF. “We’re not detaining them. We’re using alternatives to detention, so no one’s really being vetted.”

The governor’s office did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.