Historically, midterm elections do not favor the party in power. However, in 2022 with Joe Biden in the White House, Democrats actually picked up a seat in the Senate. In 2018 during Donald Trump’s first term, Republicans netted 2 seats. Like those midterm cycles, 2026 could come down to the Senate map itself.
Currently, the Senate is comprised of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. In order to regain control of the Senate, Democrats need to net 4 seats. (In the event of a 50-50 Senate, Vice President J.D. Vance becomes the tiebreaker.) Based on the seats up for grabs in 2026, it will be a tall order for Democrats to reach 51 seats or more.
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) for the 2026 election cycle, recently identified 6 states as major battlegrounds; Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2025/02/10/inside-the-nrscs-winter-meeting-cash-is-king-00203319
Among these, three seats are currently held by Republicans: Susan Collins in Maine, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, and newly appointed Jon Husted in Ohio.
Susan Collins, one of two self-described “pro-choice” Republicans in the Senate, is up for reelection in Maine. Collins has a mixed record on abortion. While she voted against pro-life bills like the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act and the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act, she also voted against the so-called Women’s Health Protection Act, a radical bill to enshrine unlimited abortion in federal law and eliminate state-level protections for unborn babies and their mothers. Collins cast a key vote in favor of confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. […]
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