As an evangelical Christian myself, I’d like to encourage my fellow believers to cast their ballots. I also ask pastors to tell their flocks to vote, without endorsing one candidate over another.

First, however, let’s explain the research.

George Barna, director of research at Arizona Christian University’s Cultural Research Center, conducted two in-depth surveys in August and September. Online and by phone, Barna surveyed 2,000 adults who self-identified as Christians and said they attended church services at least once a month. He also did an online survey of 1,000 adults in the overall U.S. population.

The surveys found that only 51% of “people of faith”—those who describe themselves as affiliated with a recognized religious faith or as “a person of religious faith”—indicate they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The U.S. voting-age population is about 268 million, and the survey estimated that about 212 million adults qualify as being in the “people of faith” category. Since 49% of “people of faith” in the survey indicated they would not be likely to vote, that amounts to approximately 104 million Americans “of faith” who are unlikely to vote.

Barna broke down these nonvoters into a few (sometimes overlapping) groups: born-again Christians, identified by their stated beliefs regarding sin and salvation (41 million nonvoters); self-identified Christians who regularly attend church services (32 million); voting-age adults who regularly attend an evangelical church (14 million); adults who attend Protestant churches (46 million); and adults who attend Catholic churches (19 million).

Likely nonvoters gave a variety of reasons for not voting: a lack of interest in politics and elections (68%), disliking all the major candidates (57%), feeling that no candidate reflects their most important views (55%), believing that their one vote won’t make a difference (52%), and saying that the election has become too controversial for their liking (50%).

Yet Barna’s research also found that these nonvoters may reconsider their apathy if their pastors encourage them to vote.

“This research underscores the fact that simply encouraging people to vote in order to fulfill their biblical responsibility would not only be seen as doing their job while helping the community, but an estimated 5 million regular churchgoers would be likely to vote as a result of that simple exhortation,” Barna said in a press release on the findings. “That, in itself, could change the outcome of the election.”

He also noted that the results of the 2020 presidential election, which were contested, came down to a combined total of 587,000 votes in nine battleground states.

“In that context, the 32 million Christians sitting in the pews each week who refuse to vote are a game-changer,” the researcher added. “It’s low-hanging fruit for pastors as they try to motivate those congregants to carry out their civic duty and honor God through their influence for things that matter in our culture.”

So, should conservative Christians vote in the 2024 election? Whether our votes will make a difference or not, what does the Bible say?

1. Honor the Ruling Authorities

Christians look with hope for the resurrection of the dead and the life of the world to come, when Jesus will reign and wipe away every tear. In the meantime, however, both the Bible and Christian tradition are clear: We should honor the ruling authorities.

“Let every person be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and those that exist have been instituted by God,” the Apostle Paul writes in Romans 13:1. (I’m using the translation known as the English Standard Version for all Bible citations.)

Jesus proclaimed that he was the messiah at a time when the Jews expected a messiah to rise against Roman oppression, just like the Maccabees did against Greek oppression under Antiochus IV Epiphanes. Jesus repeatedly told his disciples and the Roman authorities that he didn’t come to usher in political change, for “my kingdom is not of this world” (John 18:36).

So, in modern America, who are the “governing authorities?” The three branches established by the Constitution—the executive under the president, the legislative under Congress, and the judicial under the Supreme Court—certainly qualify. But each derives its own authority from the people, who exercise their sovereign will through voting.

I would argue that in modern America, if you are a citizen with the right to vote, honoring the governing authorities entails educating yourself on the major issues and casting a ballot in your local, state, and federal elections.

Paul also lays out the basic function of government: The ruler, he writes, “is God’s servant for your good,” to reward the good and punish the evil. Paul adds: “He is the servant of God, an avenger who carries out God’s wrath on the wrongdoer” (Romans 13:3-5).

At the most basic level, following the Apostle Paul’s directive here involves casting a ballot in the way that will best help the government be a servant of God’s ultimate justice while acknowledging that human justice is limited.

2. Seek the Peace of the City

Some Christians might object that casting a ballot represents an endorsement of flawed candidates or a flawed system, and therefore they should protect their consciences by not implicating themselves in a broken political system.

To these people I would point to Jeremiah 29, the letter that the prophet Jeremiah wrote to the Jewish exiles in Babylon. Although God inspired Jeremiah to write that letter to the Jewish exiles at the time, not to modern Christians today, Christians may look to Jeremiah’s advice for inspiration and guidance—especially as Christians find themselves in what feels like a hostile and post-Christian American culture.

“Thus says the Lord of hosts, the God of Israel, to all the exiles whom I have sent into exile from Jerusalem to Babylon: Build houses and live in them; plant gardens and eat their produce,” Jeremiah wrote. “But seek the welfare of the city where I have sent you into exile, and pray to the Lord on its behalf, for in its welfare you will find your welfare” (Jeremiah 29: 4-7).

Christians live in a sort of exile on earth, as citizens of heaven. As St. Augustine wrote in his magnificent book “The City of God,” Christians should work for the peace and prosperity of the earthly city in which we live, while longing for the heavenly city where our true citizenship and fulfillment reside.

This means voting in elections, sometimes for the lesser of what may seem to be two evils, because our votes will make a difference and can help the health of the earthly city where we currently dwell.

3. Instruments of God

Ultimately, God decides whether nations rise or fall, and whether he will give them prosperity or judgment.

This should come as great encouragement to American Christians who fear for our country. It is not up to us to determine whether the Constitution endures, whether the deep state will be defeated, or whether an immoral person takes the reins of the U.S. government.

Our votes can make an impact, but God determines the course of history, and he inspired Paul to write to the Romans, “We know that for those who love God all things work together for good, for those who are called according to his purpose” (Romans 8:28).

This “good” does not always mean earthly prosperity—all things ultimately worked together for good for Stephen when he got stoned for preaching the good news about Jesus (Acts 7-8). It does mean, however, that we can put our ultimate hope in God, and look at the struggles in this world as a testing ground, a “vale of tears” before we reach the summit of everlasting joy.

“The king’s heart is a stream of water in the hand of the Lord; he turns it wherever he will,” Solomon writes in Proverbs 21.

The prophets ring with the message that God sometimes chooses judgment for his people, the Jews, and he used both the Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar and the Persian King Cyrus to accomplish his will. The first served God by delivering judgment on the Jews—destroying Jerusalem and carrying the Jews off into exile. The second served God by returning the Jews to Jerusalem, paying to rebuild the temple and the walls of the holy city.

When we vote, prayerfully and wisely, we are taking our own small part in God’s ultimate governance of human affairs. We won’t always get it right, but he will.