According to FiveThirtyEight’s Oct. 22 aggregate of opinion polls, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are in a tight race—49 percent to 51 percent respectively—for the presidency.
Although presidential race opinion polls have always been close, until recently, Harris has consistently held slight advantages of around 2 percent since she succeeded President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee on July 21.
The Trump campaign appears to be gaining momentum, so much so that an Oct. 18 forecast by FiveThirtyEight’s G. Elliott Morris determined, when analyzing opinion polls from the seven battleground states pundits say will determine Nov. 5’s results, that Harris is actually now trailing by up to 4 percent.
“For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast … Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris,” he wrote. “As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.”
However, those tracking predictive markets—“event futures markets” where people can bet, or purchase “yes” or “no” shares on a proposition that something will or won’t occur—say they saw this trend at least two weeks before it manifested in opinion polls. […]
— Read More: www.theepochtimes.com
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