As Americans prepare to head to the polls on Nov. 5, some voters are putting their money where their mouth is by placing bets on the election’s outcome.
With less than a week left before the election, Polymarket, a betting platform and the world’s largest prediction market, gives former President Donald Trump a two-thirds chance (66.3%) of winning back the presidency. Vice President Kamala Harris has a one-in-three chance (33.8%).
Behind the overall odds of becoming president are Polymarket’s odds for Trump and Harris in the major swing states. Trump, according to Polymarket, is the favorite to win five of the six tracked swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan is currently a dead heat, while Polymarket does not include North Carolina among the swing states on its webpage.
Polymarket users are placing their bets on Trump in the state of Nevada, home to the gambling mecca of Las Vegas. Currently, the betting platform has Trump with a 66% chance of winning the Silver State, while Harris has a 34% chance.
The polls, however, show the race much closer. Real Clear Polling averages show Trump winning by only 0.7 of a percentage point. Why, then, do the betting markets seem fairly confident of a Trump victory there? […]
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